4715 Petersburg Back St

Hurlock, MD 21643

$56,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 306 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,672/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax + insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $974/mo
• Annual: $11,689/yr
• Cap rate: 27.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.54%
• DSCR: 4.32
• 1% rule: 2.99%
• Cash to close: $15,680

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $974 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($387 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#332 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 4.7% in Hurlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.