4715 Petersburg Back St · Hurlock, MD 21643

$56,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 306 Days on market

Built 1984 0.60 ac lot $61/sqft · 37% above area Est $41k · 37% over ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on 0.60 acres just outside the City of Hurlock, this charming country property offers a world of possibilities. Currently home to a 924 sq. ft. mobile home in need of removal, this land is the perfect blank slate for your dream home or weekend getaway. Across the street, a brand-new construction home sets the tone for new development and a peaceful neighborhood. If they can do it, so can you! According to the County and City of Hurlock it is outside the city limits and considered Dorchester County. They also said it has well and septic but you must call the Health Department to verify. Located just 15 minutes from Katie's Cafe, Johnny’s Tavern, and Suicide Bridge Restaurant, you'll enjoy the best of country serenity with convenient access to local hotspots. Plus, you're only 20 minutes to Cambridge, 50 minutes from St. Michaels, 75 minutes from Ocean City or Dover, and 90 minutes to Annapolis making weekend escapes a breeze. Fishing, boat, or water enthusiasts will love the nearby Chester River Country Club Lake, just 5 minutes away, offering a great spot to unwind. Whether you're looking to build new or embrace country life, this property offers a perfect balance of peace and accessibility

Key facts

• Private septic tank
• Public sewer
• 0.60 acres

Tags

• 0.60 ACRES
• PUBLIC SEWER
• PRIVATE SEPTIC TANK
• NEW DEVELOPMENT
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $974 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 6.0% in Hurlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#332 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($387 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.54%
• DSCR: 4.32
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,022
• List price: $56,000
• Delta: 36.51%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $92,538
• Equity at exit: $50,449

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.5%
• Equity multiple: 15.27×
• Total profit: $223,723
• Equity at exit: $108,796

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21643

• Home prices YoY: 15.5%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,672 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $360/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $974

Break-even live

Break-even rent $439

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,006	-5% $990	+0% $974	+5% $958	+10% $942
Rent	-10% $842	-5% $908	+0% $974	+5% $1,040	+10% $1,106
Rate	-1.0pp $1,002	-0.5pp $988	base $974	+0.5pp $960	+1.0pp $945

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $56,000 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,000 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,000 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,000 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,000 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $56,000 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $56,000 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $56,000 Active 295 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $56,000 Active 294 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,000 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,000 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $56,000 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $56,000 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $56,000 Active 287 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,000 Active 286 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,000 Active 285 DOM
17. 2025-08-18
    listed $56,000 Active 1223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1223 chars)

    Nestled on 0.60 acres just outside the City of Hurlock, this charming country property offers a world of possibilities. Currently home to a 924 sq. ft. mobile home in need of removal, this land is the perfect blank slate for your dream home or weekend getaway. Across the street, a brand-new construction home sets the tone for new development and a peaceful neighborhood. If they can do it, so can you! According to the County and City of Hurlock it is outside the city limits and considered Dorchester County. They also said it has well and septic but you must call the Health Department to verify. Located just 15 minutes from Katie's Cafe, Johnny’s Tavern, and Suicide Bridge Restaurant, you'll enjoy the best of country serenity with convenient access to local hotspots. Plus, you're only 20 minutes to Cambridge, 50 minutes from St. Michaels, 75 minutes from Ocean City or Dover, and 90 minutes to Annapolis making weekend escapes a breeze. Fishing, boat, or water enthusiasts will love the nearby Chester River Country Club Lake, just 5 minutes away, offering a great spot to unwind. Whether you're looking to build new or embrace country life, this property offers a perfect balance of peace and accessibility

18. 2025-08-09
    historical
19. 2025-07-31
    price $69,900
20. 2025-05-25
    price $56,000
21. 2025-01-10
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $360 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 34.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$360
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,605
• − Management: −$1,605
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $11,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,748
• After-tax cash flow: $8,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

Livability — Hurlock

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #17536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,176

Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 28% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.36%
• Current HPI: 390.419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-19.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-18 Listed $56,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-25 Price Changed $56,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-10 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $360 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.