2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,331 sqft ·
Built 2006
· Timeshare
· Pending
· 94 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,692/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$886
Tax + insurance
−$282
HOA
−$1,150
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$775
Net cashflow
$598/mo
Annual
$7,181/yr
Cap rate
10.54%
Cash-on-cash
15.18%
DSCR
1.68
1% rule
2.18%
Cash to close
$47,320
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath timeshare listed at $169k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $598 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $169k).
It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $154k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#283 in FL, #4,522 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, amenities F.
Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
Market conditions: 722 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 0.9% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($146k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-E8H79N41E1EWK0
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29