3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,066 sqft ·
Built 1957
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,148/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$125
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$241
Net cashflow
$-57/mo
Annual
$-689/yr
Cap rate
5.86%
Cash-on-cash
-1.54%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$44,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-689/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (6.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (28.3% below list).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $115k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#122 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Colbert County (rural): math 13% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #90 of 129 in AL (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Colbert Heights Elementary School (math 24% / reading 49%, grade F, #281 of 627 statewide, top 45%, 473 students, 50% FRL); Colbert County High School (math 5% / reading 32%, grade F, #184 of 305 statewide, top 61%, 455 students, 43% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Colbert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Colbert County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $85k; list at $160k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Littleville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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