301 Lilly Ln

Tuskegee, AL 36083

$125,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,551 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,377/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $333/mo
• Annual: $4,001/yr
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.43%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#375 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Macon County (town): math 2% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #123 of 129 in AL (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macon County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 7.3% in Tuskegee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.