2512 Maia Loop

Springfield, OR 97477

$299,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,770/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$352
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-522/mo
• Annual: $-6,259/yr
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.48%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-522 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (40.8% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#40 in OR, #934 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+.
• Springfield SD 19 (suburban): math 19% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #48 of 58 in OR (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Yolanda Elementary School (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #183 of 412 statewide, top 47%, 358 students, 61% FRL); Briggs Middle School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #119 of 128 statewide, top 94%, 428 students, 62% FRL); Thurston High School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #85 of 143 statewide, top 61%, 1,277 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $299k implies a 697% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.0% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.