Churchill (Barrington) Plan

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40118

$85,995F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 327 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$615
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-290/mo
• Annual: $-3,482/yr
• Cap rate: 2.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.46%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $24,079

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $44k (48.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Coral Ridge Elementary (math 13% / reading 32%, grade F, #523 of 676 statewide, top 77%, 556 students, 63% FRL); Lassiter Middle (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #208 of 217 statewide, top 96%, 1,004 students, 70% FRL); Fairdale High (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 1,386 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 4.1% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.