Churchill (Barrington) Plan · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40118

$85,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 327 Days on market

Manufactured home $615/mo HOA · 53% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in southwest Jefferson County off National Turnpike, with easy access to the Gene Snyder Freeway and Outer Loop Road, Barrington Pointe is in a quiet suburban neighborhood close to shopping, employment and schools. Barrington Pointe is a traditional subdivision style layout with cul-de-sac streets. We have a community center that can be used for large gatherings, as well as a fitness center, playground, soccer field, recreation area, and basketball courts. Community Amenities Ball field, Clubhouse, Picnic Area, Playground, and Soccer Field Schools Friable Elementary, Coral Ridge Elementary, Lassiter Middle School, and Fairdale High School

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Community center
• Soccer field

Tags

• QUIET SUBURBAN NEIGHBORHOOD
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND
• SOCCER FIELD
• RECREATION AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $85,995; Address: Fairdale, KY 40118
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 615

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home; Listed as new construction plan
• Construction: Built as part of the Churchill (Barrington) plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,280

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home — Churchill (Barrington)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $44k (48.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 4.1% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Coral Ridge Elementary (math 13% / reading 32%, grade F, #523 of 676 statewide, top 77%, 556 students, 63% FRL); Lassiter Middle (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #208 of 217 statewide, top 96%, 1,004 students, 70% FRL); Fairdale High (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 1,386 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,009 (48.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.46%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-32,020
• Equity at exit: $12,822

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.08×
• Total profit: $-50,072
• Equity at exit: $7,435

Cash invested: $24,079 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40118

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$107 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$615
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $44,009

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-231	-5% $-260	+0% $-290	+5% $-320	+10% $-350
Rent	-10% $-382	-5% $-336	+0% $-290	+5% $-244	+10% $-198
Rate	-1.0pp $-247	-0.5pp $-268	base $-290	+0.5pp $-312	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,499
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7635 Eagle Landing Way Louisville, KY	3.0	3.5	1628	$2,000	$1.23	26d	1	1.05mi
7528 Garrison Rd Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	26d	1	1.13mi
201 Pheasant Ave Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,335	$1.26	0d	12	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $615 · $7,380/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $85,995 Active 327 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,995 Active 326 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,995 Active 323 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,995 Active 322 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,995 Active 321 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,995 Active 320 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,995 Active 318 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,995 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,995 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,995 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,995 Active 312 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,995 Active 308 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,995 Active 307 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,995 Active 306 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,995 Active 305 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − HOA: −$7,380
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable loss: −$4,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• City population: 419,741
• Population (ZIP): 9,903

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.35%
• Current HPI: 252.7026
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B