382 Splittail Way

Napa, CA 94558

$908,260F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,598 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,428/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,763
• Tax + insurance: −$1,514
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$930
• Net cashflow: $-2,779/mo
• Annual: $-33,343/yr
• Cap rate: 2.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.11%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $254,313

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $908k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $506k (44.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $443k (51.2% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($895k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $443k (51.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phillips Elementary (381 students, 86% FRL); Silverado Middle (868 students, 77% FRL); Napa High (1,762 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At $4,428/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($113k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.