382 Splittail Way · Napa, CA 94558

$908,260

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,598 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $350/sqft · at area comps Est $948k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Live at your pace with plenty of space in Patina's Plan 1. Offering abundant living of 2,340 square feet, and up to 2,598 square feet with the optional third floor. A light-filled great room flows into a dining area and chef-inspired kitchen, complete with an island and expansive walk-in pantry to house all your favorites in one place. On the ground floor, a private bedroom adjacent to the entryway offers the perfect retreat for out-of-town guests, while a breezy patio invites moments of connection under the sun.

Key facts

• Private bedroom
• Laundry room
• Breezy patio

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• WALK IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE BEDROOM
• BREEZY PATIO
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $908k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $476k (47.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (54.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $417k (54.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phillips Elementary (381 students, 86% FRL); Silverado Middle (868 students, 77% FRL); Napa High (1,762 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 648 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($895k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $416,743 (54.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.08%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 18.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $947,877
• List price: $908,260
• Delta: -4.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
342 Sagebrush Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,559 (-2%)	2mo	$884,256	$346	91
347 Cordelia Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,559 (-2%)	8mo	$954,247	$373	87
315 Flagship Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,598 (0%)	10mo	$959,000	$369	84
319 Flagship Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,559 (-2%)	13mo	$899,430	$351	79
309 Sagebrush Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,559 (-2%)	20mo	$1,007,790	$394	74
307 Flagship Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,559 (-2%)	20mo	$928,320	$363	74
106 Compass Dr	0.26mi	3/4.5 (-1)	2,600 (+0%)	8mo	$785,309	$302	70
110 Compass Dr	0.26mi	4/3.5	2,311 (-11%)	8mo	$869,361	$376	60
325 Sagebrush Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,340 (-10%)	20mo	$1,003,458	$429	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-349,412
• Equity at exit: $135,425

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.34×
• Total profit: $-595,970
• Equity at exit: $78,530

Cash invested: $254,313 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 68.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $926,635 ($351/sqft)
• Median days on market: 38 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 94558

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 18.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,763
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,135 /mo · $13,624/yr
• Insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $-2,985

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,945

Max offer price $476,397

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,357	-5% $-2,671	+0% $-2,985	+5% $-3,298	+10% $-3,612
Rent	-10% $-3,314	-5% $-3,149	+0% $-2,985	+5% $-2,820	+10% $-2,655
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,527	-0.5pp $-2,754	base $-2,985	+0.5pp $-3,220	+1.0pp $-3,459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $227,065
• Closing costs: $27,248
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $908,260 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $908,260 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $908,260 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $908,260 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $908,260 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $908,260 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $908,260 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $908,260 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $908,260 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $908,260 Active 7 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,877
• − Property taxes: −$13,624
• − Insurance: −$4,541
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,001
• − Management: −$4,001
• − Depreciation: −$26,422
• Taxable loss: −$53,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,830
• After-tax cash flow: $-22,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Phillips Elementary Middle Silverado Middle High Napa High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Napa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7435

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napa, CA
• County: Napa County · 153,987 people
• City population: 91,371
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,657
• Household income: $113,269
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
• Current HPI: 296.0661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B