5647 Lidden Ln

Machesney Park, IL 61115

$105,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,540/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $491/mo
• Annual: $5,892/yr
• Cap rate: 11.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.04%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Windsor Elem School (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,224 of 2,056 statewide, top 60%, 365 students, 0% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #488 of 665 statewide, top 74%, 957 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.8% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.