5647 Lidden Ln · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition Est $102k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to easy, comfortable living in this beautifully maintained 55+ community! This spacious 2,000 sq ft mobile home offers 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, including a private primary suite designed for relaxation. Enjoy a large walk-in closet and unwind in the luxurious jetted tub after a long day. The heart of the home is the stunning kitchen, featuring warm oak cabinetry, ample storage, and an island and breakfast bar. The open layout flows into the living and dining areas, creating a welcoming atmosphere perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside to your covered front porch ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The oversized 2 car attac

Key facts

• Oak cabinetry
• Large walk-in closet
• Jetted tub

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• JETTED TUB
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• OAK CABINETRY
• ISLAND AND BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Both full bathrooms are on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Water softener; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $854 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 4.8% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Windsor Elem School (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,224 of 2,056 statewide, top 60%, 365 students, 0% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #488 of 665 statewide, top 74%, 957 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.87%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,000
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5631 Irving Blvd	0.04mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,052 (+3%)	7mo	$110,000	$54	79
8401 Tamarack Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (+6%)	1mo	$118,450	$56	77
5615 Cypress Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,848 (-8%)	8mo	$105,000	$57	75
5332 Cypress Ln	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,926 (-4%)	8mo	$100,000	$52	73
8410 Hickory Tree Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-8%)	10mo	$95,000	$51	72
8415 Tamarack Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-10%)	10mo	$84,900	$47	69
5371 Heartwood Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-10%)	2mo	$95,000	$53	68
5664 Irving Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-8%)	21mo	$93,250	$50	66
8571 Summerwood Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-5%)	13mo	$49,000	$26	65
8411 Hickory Tree Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-10%)	12mo	$81,000	$45	65
5640 Irving Blvd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-12%)	15mo	$86,000	$49	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $37,431
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $102,785
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $854

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $927	-5% $891	+0% $854	+5% $818	+10% $782
Rent	-10% $696	-5% $775	+0% $854	+5% $933	+10% $1,012
Rate	-1.0pp $907	-0.5pp $881	base $854	+0.5pp $827	+1.0pp $799

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6410 Harvest Ln Machesney Park, IL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1535	$2,000	$1.30	15d	2	0.94mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   status Active
3. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-09
   historical
5. 2026-03-23
   listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $9,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,190
• After-tax cash flow: $8,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in a 55+ community offers spacious living with good condition and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both trim landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both trim landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NWIAR
• 2026-04-27 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $105,000 NWIAR