11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #202

Surprise, AZ 85378

$167,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,010/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$880
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $428/mo
• Annual: $5,133/yr
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.92%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $47,012

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $297 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.