11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #202 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$167,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured · 142 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition $94/sqft · 99% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE-IN READY IN PRIME SURPRISE LOCATION! NEW A/C & WASHER/DRYER! Welcome to this well-maintained home in a desirable 55+ community offering comfort, convenience, and value. Enjoy an open, light-filled layout, functional kitchen, and spacious bedrooms with walk in closets and ample storage. Relax on the covered patio or take advantage of community amenities including a heated pool, sauna and clubhouse. Located near shopping, dining, medical facilities, and easy freeway access. Low-maintenance living at its best--perfect for a seasonal retreat or full-time residence. Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Well maintained home
• Covered patio

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• PRIME SURPRISE LOCATION
• WELL MAINTAINED HOME
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $297 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,752 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.92%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,263
• List price: $167,900
• Delta: 99.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #131	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-6%)	5mo	$122,000	$73	80
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #20	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-4%)	6mo	$50,000	$29	79
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #339	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	16mo	$99,000	$59	76
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #17	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+6%)	17mo	$120,000	$63	76
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #325	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+6%)	17mo	$125,000	$66	76
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #261	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-9%)	12mo	$149,900	$92	75
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #80	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-14%)	1mo	$120,000	$78	70
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #372	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-13%)	11mo	$93,000	$60	69
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #28	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-12%)	12mo	$34,000	$22	64
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #36	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,708 (-5%)	12mo	$135,000	$79	60
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #29	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-14%)	5mo	$73,500	$48	58
16101 N El Mirage Rd #361	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,792 (0%)	12mo	$164,000	$92	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $17,871
• Equity at exit: $50,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $51,619
• Equity at exit: $61,597

Cash invested: $47,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$880
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$210 /mo · $2,518/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,469

Max offer price $167,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,975
• Closing costs: $5,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	0.24mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	43d	1	0.29mi
16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,900	$1.21	43d	1	0.32mi
11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1963	$1,816	$0.93	43d	1	0.62mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	5d	1	0.80mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	24d	1	0.80mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	0.82mi
15204 N El Frio Ct El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,019	$1.02	2d	1	0.83mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	24d	1	0.83mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	18d	1	0.85mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	1d	1	0.85mi
12204 W Ocotillo Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$1,949	$0.92	23d	1	0.89mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	43d	1	0.91mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	43d	1	0.93mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	24d	1	0.96mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	21d	1	0.96mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	43d	1	1.00mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	1.05mi
11439 W Ashley Chantil Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,995	$1.02	43d	1	1.07mi
11429 W Austin Thomas Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,875	$1.22	43d	1	1.13mi
11175 W Ashley Chantil Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2455	$2,795	$1.14	24d	1	1.15mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	1d	17	1.22mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	43d	1	1.22mi
11319 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$2,500	$1.28	24d	1	1.25mi
11319 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$2,500	$1.28	43d	1	1.25mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,771	$2.96	1d	1	1.35mi
14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$2,010	$1.31	43d	1	1.47mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	16d	1	1.49mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,900 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,900 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,900 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,900 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,900 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,900 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $167,900 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $167,900 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $167,900 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $167,900 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $167,900 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,900 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,900 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    price $167,900 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY IN PRIME SURPRISE LOCATION! NEW A/C & WASHER/DRYER! Welcome to this well-maintained home in a desirable 55+ community offering comfort, convenience, and value. Enjoy an open, light-filled layout, functional kitchen, and spacious bedrooms with walk in closets and ample storage. Relax on the covered patio or take advantage of community amenities including a heated pool, sauna and clubhouse. Located near shopping, dining, medical facilities, and easy freeway access. Low-maintenance living at its best--perfect for a seasonal retreat or full-time residence. Don't miss this opportunity!

15. 2026-03-03
    price $169,900 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY IN PRIME SURPRISE LOCATION! NEW A/C & WASHER/DRYER! Welcome to this well-maintained home in a desirable 55+ community offering comfort, convenience, and value. Enjoy an open, light-filled layout, functional kitchen, and spacious bedrooms with walk in closets and ample storage. Relax on the covered patio or take advantage of community amenities including a heated pool, sauna and clubhouse. Located near shopping, dining, medical facilities, and easy freeway access. Low-maintenance living at its best--perfect for a seasonal retreat or full-time residence. Don't miss this opportunity!

16. 2026-01-28
    price $174,900 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY IN PRIME SURPRISE LOCATION! NEW A/C & WASHER/DRYER! Welcome to this well-maintained home in a desirable 55+ community offering comfort, convenience, and value. Enjoy an open, light-filled layout, functional kitchen, and spacious bedrooms with walk in closets and ample storage. Relax on the covered patio or take advantage of community amenities including a heated pool, sauna and clubhouse. Located near shopping, dining, medical facilities, and easy freeway access. Low-maintenance living at its best--perfect for a seasonal retreat or full-time residence. Don't miss this opportunity!

17. 2026-01-27
    listed $169,900 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY IN PRIME SURPRISE LOCATION! NEW A/C & WASHER/DRYER! Welcome to this well-maintained home in a desirable 55+ community offering comfort, convenience, and value. Enjoy an open, light-filled layout, functional kitchen, and spacious bedrooms with walk in closets and ample storage. Relax on the covered patio or take advantage of community amenities including a heated pool, sauna and clubhouse. Located near shopping, dining, medical facilities, and easy freeway access. Low-maintenance living at its best--perfect for a seasonal retreat or full-time residence. Don't miss this opportunity!

18. 2023-02-28
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Neat and clean 3 bedroom 2 bath home with carpet in the bedrooms only. Plantation shutters and engineered hardwood in main living area. This home has a large kitchen with plenty of cabinets for storage, with roll out shelving, formal dining room. Home is light and bright large master bedroom and bath, w/walk in shower. Roof, A/C all about 7 years old. Laundry room with extra storage, all appliances covey with property. Finished storage shed and epoxy drive way. Front screened in deck for privacy and great views of the mountains. Front and side yards have been cleaned and new landscaping has been added. Carport large enough for 2 vehicles This is a gated 55+ community and all buyers must be approved by the resort to purchase. Financing is available check with your agent.

19. 2023-01-25
    status Pending 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Neat and clean 3 bedroom 2 bath home with carpet in the bedrooms only. Plantation shutters and engineered hardwood in main living area. This home has a large kitchen with plenty of cabinets for storage, with roll out shelving, formal dining room. Home is light and bright large master bedroom and bath, w/walk in shower. Roof, A/C all about 7 years old. Laundry room with extra storage, all appliances covey with property. Finished storage shed and epoxy drive way. Front screened in deck for privacy and great views of the mountains. Front and side yards have been cleaned and new landscaping has been added. Carport large enough for 2 vehicles This is a gated 55+ community and all buyers must be approved by the resort to purchase. Financing is available check with your agent.

20. 2023-01-20
    listed $155,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Neat and clean 3 bedroom 2 bath home with carpet in the bedrooms only. Plantation shutters and engineered hardwood in main living area. This home has a large kitchen with plenty of cabinets for storage, with roll out shelving, formal dining room. Home is light and bright large master bedroom and bath, w/walk in shower. Roof, A/C all about 7 years old. Laundry room with extra storage, all appliances covey with property. Finished storage shed and epoxy drive way. Front screened in deck for privacy and great views of the mountains. Front and side yards have been cleaned and new landscaping has been added. Carport large enough for 2 vehicles This is a gated 55+ community and all buyers must be approved by the resort to purchase. Financing is available check with your agent.

21. 2022-04-12
    soldstatus $145,000 Closed
22. 2022-03-11
    status Pending
23. 2022-03-08
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,405
• − Property taxes: −$2,518
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − Depreciation: −$4,884
• Taxable income: $2,615
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$628
• After-tax cash flow: $4,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in a desirable 55+ community offers a good condition with updated appliances and a clean exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+15.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $167,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $174,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2023-02-28 Sold (MLS) $155,000 ARMLS
• 2023-01-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $155,000 ARMLS
• 2022-04-12 Sold (MLS) $145,000 ARMLS
• 2022-03-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-03-08 Listed $145,000 ARMLS