861 Happy Top Trl

Bailey, CO 80421

$149,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 609 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Pending · 325 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,873/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$183
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $412/mo
• Annual: $4,941/yr
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.84%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 325 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Platte Canyon School District No. 1 Of The County Of Park (rural): math 38% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #9 of 86 in CO (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Platte Canyon High School (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 228 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 144 units permitted in Park County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Park County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 325 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.