861 Happy Top Trl · Bailey, CO 80421

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 609 sqft · Other public records · 325 Days on market

Built 1960 $183/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE A rare find *Off the Grid Forest service Cabin in the middle of the national forest yet minutes to restaurants,winery, brewery or coffee shop. improvements only * no Real estate is conveyed. No well or septic or conventional electricity on this Handyman's delight, you can Haul in your water and use the outside privy yet you are just a few miles to year round convenience in the Bailey community. Huge opportunity for Private retreat and get away ..not intended to be a primary residence. Locked gate entry on this one "no drive bys " Rules and conditions of USFS shall apply

Key facts

• 8 parking spots
• Built 1960
• Listed 325 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed: cats and dogs OK
• HOA & community: Association present (USFS / Happy Top); Professionally managed; Annual association fees totaling $2,200 ($2,100 + $100)

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking; Room for about 8 vehicles total, including 4 off-street spaces
• Utilities: Sewer: holding tank; Power and other utilities not specified
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Exterior access entry; Faces south; Fixer condition; Individually owned
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built as a house (living area recorded at 609)
• Exterior features: Balcony; Deck; Located on a secluded, wooded lot that borders National Forest; Cul-de-sac location; Dirt road frontage on a private, privately maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level (can sleep multiple guests)
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall furnace; Wood heating
• Interior features: One great room with a fireplace; Open-design kitchen area (old wood cook stove; kitchen gray-water system; water hauled in)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Platte Canyon School District No. 1 Of The County Of Park (rural): math 38% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #9 of 86 in CO (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Platte Canyon High School (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 228 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 144 units permitted in Park County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Park County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 325 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 325 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.84%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,132
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $35,836
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80421

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $502/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   NEW PRICE A rare find *Off the Grid Forest service Cabin in the middle of the national forest yet minutes to restaurants,winery, brewery or coffee shop. improvements only * no Real estate is conveyed. No well or septic or conventional electricity on this Handyman's delight, you can Haul in your water and use the outside privy yet you are just a few miles to year round convenience in the Bailey community. Huge opportunity for Private retreat and get away ..not intended to be a primary residence. Locked gate entry on this one "no drive bys " Rules and conditions of USFS shall apply

2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   NEW PRICE A rare find *Off the Grid Forest service Cabin in the middle of the national forest yet minutes to restaurants,winery, brewery or coffee shop. improvements only * no Real estate is conveyed. No well or septic or conventional electricity on this Handyman's delight, you can Haul in your water and use the outside privy yet you are just a few miles to year round convenience in the Bailey community. Huge opportunity for Private retreat and get away ..not intended to be a primary residence. Locked gate entry on this one "no drive bys " Rules and conditions of USFS shall apply

3. 2026-04-08
   price $149,000 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   NEW PRICE A rare find *Off the Grid Forest service Cabin in the middle of the national forest yet minutes to restaurants,winery, brewery or coffee shop. improvements only * no Real estate is conveyed. No well or septic or conventional electricity on this Handyman's delight, you can Haul in your water and use the outside privy yet you are just a few miles to year round convenience in the Bailey community. Huge opportunity for Private retreat and get away ..not intended to be a primary residence. Locked gate entry on this one "no drive bys " Rules and conditions of USFS shall apply

4. 2026-04-08
   price $149,000 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   NEW PRICE A rare find *Off the Grid Forest service Cabin in the middle of the national forest yet minutes to restaurants,winery, brewery or coffee shop. improvements only * no Real estate is conveyed. No well or septic or conventional electricity on this Handyman's delight, you can Haul in your water and use the outside privy yet you are just a few miles to year round convenience in the Bailey community. Huge opportunity for Private retreat and get away ..not intended to be a primary residence. Locked gate entry on this one "no drive bys " Rules and conditions of USFS shall apply

5. 2025-06-13
   listed $175,000 Active 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   NEW PRICE A rare find *Off the Grid Forest service Cabin in the middle of the national forest yet minutes to restaurants,winery, brewery or coffee shop. improvements only * no Real estate is conveyed. No well or septic or conventional electricity on this Handyman's delight, you can Haul in your water and use the outside privy yet you are just a few miles to year round convenience in the Bailey community. Huge opportunity for Private retreat and get away ..not intended to be a primary residence. Locked gate entry on this one "no drive bys " Rules and conditions of USFS shall apply

6. 2025-06-13
   listed $175,000 Active 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   NEW PRICE A rare find *Off the Grid Forest service Cabin in the middle of the national forest yet minutes to restaurants,winery, brewery or coffee shop. improvements only * no Real estate is conveyed. No well or septic or conventional electricity on this Handyman's delight, you can Haul in your water and use the outside privy yet you are just a few miles to year round convenience in the Bailey community. Huge opportunity for Private retreat and get away ..not intended to be a primary residence. Locked gate entry on this one "no drive bys " Rules and conditions of USFS shall apply

7. 2025-06-06
   historical $175,000 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   NEW PRICE A rare find *Off the Grid Forest service Cabin in the middle of the national forest yet minutes to restaurants,winery, brewery or coffee shop. improvements only * no Real estate is conveyed. No well or septic or conventional electricity on this Handyman's delight, you can Haul in your water and use the outside privy yet you are just a few miles to year round convenience in the Bailey community. Huge opportunity for Private retreat and get away ..not intended to be a primary residence. Locked gate entry on this one "no drive bys " Rules and conditions of USFS shall apply

8. 2025-06-06
   historical $175,000 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   NEW PRICE A rare find *Off the Grid Forest service Cabin in the middle of the national forest yet minutes to restaurants,winery, brewery or coffee shop. improvements only * no Real estate is conveyed. No well or septic or conventional electricity on this Handyman's delight, you can Haul in your water and use the outside privy yet you are just a few miles to year round convenience in the Bailey community. Huge opportunity for Private retreat and get away ..not intended to be a primary residence. Locked gate entry on this one "no drive bys " Rules and conditions of USFS shall apply

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $502 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$26/mo · 63.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$502
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$663
• After-tax cash flow: $4,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Platte Canyon School District No. 1 Of The County Of Park
• NCES district ID: 0802370
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,757
• Composite: 46.03/100
• National rank: #2523
• State rank: #9 of 86 in CO

Livability — Bailey

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,601

Population outlook (Park County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,411 people
• By 2030: 17,584 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 17,261 · -0.9%
• By 2050: 16,115 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 14,174 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 11,928 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Park

• 2024 margin: R (+16.5) · D 40.2% · R 56.7% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.5 2020: R+17.0 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.29%
• Current HPI: 322.1809
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — IRES
• 2026-05-04 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $149,000 IRES
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $149,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Listed $175,000 IRES
• 2025-06-13 Listed $175,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Coming Soon $175,000 IRES
• 2025-06-06 Coming Soon $175,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $502 · +131.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.