436 Apple Blossom Way

Macon-Bibb County, GA 31217

$199,990D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,932 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,482/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-119/mo
• Annual: $-1,434/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $55,997

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (25.9% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bernd Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,092 of 1,228 statewide, top 91%, 415 students, 100% FRL); Appling Middle School (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #429 of 470 statewide, top 91%, 648 students, 100% FRL); Northeast High School (math 2% / reading 5%, grade F, #413 of 424 statewide, top 99%, 742 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $200k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.