436 Apple Blossom Way · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31217

$199,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2008 Est $224k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is your chance to own your mini mansion. Great fixer upper, you get the opportunity to select and put in your colors, flooring and appliances. Design the interior of this home to suit your taste. The seller is motivated, however, serious offers only. Now is the time to awaken your creative senses and make this house your dream home. Must provide proof of funds with contract. The handy man's dream. SOLD AS IS. WATER IS NOT TO BE TURNED ON DUE TO MISSING FIXTURES. Call or text agent for viewing.

Key facts

• Updated bath
• New carpet
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATH
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW CARPET
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bernd Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,092 of 1,228 statewide, top 91%, 415 students, 100% FRL); Appling Middle School (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #429 of 470 statewide, top 91%, 648 students, 100% FRL); Northeast High School (math 2% / reading 5%, grade F, #413 of 424 statewide, top 99%, 742 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $200k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,192 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,112
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
628 Crabapple Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,932 (0%)	14mo	$175,000	$91	80
5151 Riggins Mill Rd	0.41mi	4/1.0	1,973 (+2%)	6mo	$55,000	$28	66
498 Crabapple Pl	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,698 (-12%)	9mo	$210,000	$124	65
605 Crabapple Pl	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,824 (-6%)	24mo	$212,000	$116	64
466 Crabapple Pl	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-5%)	18mo	$180,000	$98	64
2970 Frederick Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,926 (-0%)	6mo	$249,000	$129	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.31% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $38,514
• Equity at exit: $105,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $145,748
• Equity at exit: $174,841

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31217

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,482 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,897/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $178,883

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-6	-5% $-63	+0% $-119	+5% $-176	+10% $-233
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-178	+0% $-119	+5% $-61	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-69	base $-119	+0.5pp $-171	+1.0pp $-224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
451 Crabapple Pl Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,375	$0.99	15d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,990 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,990 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,990 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,990 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,990 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,990 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,990 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 138-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $199,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,897 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,897 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,897
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,423
• − Management: −$1,423
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 17,732
• Household income: $44,809
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 391.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 38% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Current HPI: 209.9166
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.85%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1076.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $199,990 FSBO.com
• 2020-02-01 Sold (MLS) $79,000 GAMLS
• 2019-11-25 Listed $79,500 GAMLS
• 2017-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $81,359 Public Records
• 2017-02-22 Sold (MLS) $81,359 GAMLS
• 2016-08-25 Listed $74,000 GAMLS
• 2008-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,897 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.