4280 Silver Fox Way

Show Low, AZ 85901

$235,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,129/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (27.7% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nikolaus Homestead Elementary School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #371 of 1,109 statewide, top 34%, 389 students, 42% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 897 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $235k implies a 447% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.