4280 Silver Fox Way · Show Low, AZ 85901

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1999 9,583 sqft lot Est $203k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is sold as is with no warranties expressed or implied. Buyers to verify all information in inspection period.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.22 acres; Road maintenance by city; Lease land: No
• HOA & community: No HOA; Subdivision: Summer Pines

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage; Attached 2-car garage; Parking slab
• Utilities: Septic tank; Individual electric meter; Metered water (Navopache); Propane available (tank leased); Power available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Single wide; Residential zoning A-General
• Construction: Metal pitched and rolled roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Deck; Utility building; Tall pines and trees on lot; Partly fenced yard with chain link and wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Potential additional bedroom (room convertible)
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom with jetted tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Bottled gas heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: Woodstove fireplace; Laminate flooring; Linoleum flooring; Blinds; Drapes; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in hallway; Electric water heater over 30 gallons

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nikolaus Homestead Elementary School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #371 of 1,109 statewide, top 34%, 389 students, 42% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 897 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $235k implies a 447% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,560
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2903 Pinon Pine Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,068 (+11%)	22mo	$225,500	$211	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-44,160
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-46,530
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 897
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,281/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,819

Max offer price $218,384

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $39	-5% $-28	+0% $-94	+5% $-161	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-161	+0% $-94	+5% $-27	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-34	base $-94	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4072 S Gold Dust Trl Show Low, AZ	2.0	1.0	896	$1,700	$1.90	45d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $235,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $235,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$270/yr (+$22/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,281
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,277
• After-tax cash flow: $148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+245.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $235,000 WMMLS
• 2013-04-15 Sold (MLS) $43,000 WMMLS
• 2002-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,281 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.