11 Willow Run Ct

Arnold, MO 63026-2303

$37,500B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Coming Soon · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $951/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax + insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $492/mo
• Annual: $5,903/yr
• Cap rate: 22.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.22%
• DSCR: 3.50
• 1% rule: 2.54%
• Cash to close: $10,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($951 rent vs $38k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($259 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meramec Heights Elem. (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #525 of 1,115 statewide, top 47%, 425 students, 52% FRL); Fox Sr. High (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 1,742 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 3.8% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.