11 Willow Run Ct · Arnold, MO 63026-2303

$37,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1991 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath Bristol Home with an approximate minimum of 1248 sq. ft. indoors. Freshly painted, open concept with vaulted ceilings and private wooded view on three sides of the home. Spacious front deck and rear shaded deck create a private oasis within the Willow Glen MHP Community. This home has a large living room with an open and adjacent full sized kitchen and breakfast nook with glass sliding door to the rear deck. The utility room off of the kitchen boasts ample space for washer/dryer access, additional storage and a rear exit to the deck. This home has a newer shingle roof and exterior shed on a leased lot from Willow Glen which is not pa

Key facts

• Built 1991

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Willow Glen MHP with resident management; Has HOA (no regular association fee listed)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Ameren electric service; Underground utilities
• Home design: Mobile home; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built by builder (year source: Builder)
• Exterior features: Adjoins wooded area; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $716 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 3.8% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meramec Heights Elem. (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #525 of 1,115 statewide, top 47%, 425 students, 52% FRL); Fox Sr. High (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 1,742 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($259 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.86%
• DSCR: 4.64
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $50,155
• Equity at exit: $16,862

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.92×
• Total profit: $114,645
• Equity at exit: $25,986

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63026-2303

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$47 /mo · $562/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $716

Break-even live

Break-even rent $328

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $729	+0% $716	+5% $703	+10% $690
Rent	-10% $619	-5% $667	+0% $716	+5% $765	+10% $814
Rate	-1.0pp $735	-0.5pp $726	base $716	+0.5pp $707	+1.0pp $697

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Branson Dr Arnold, MO	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	46d	1	0.39mi
3565 Stone Mill Dr Arnold, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,125	$1.52	4d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $37,500 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$562
• − Insurance: −$188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,185
• − Management: −$1,185
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $8,504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,041
• After-tax cash flow: $6,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good roof and fresh paint. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and property value
• Both update flooring — Updating the flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both update flooring — Updating the flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fox C-6
• NCES district ID: 2912300
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,849
• Composite: 37.54/100
• National rank: #4392
• State rank: #103 of 324 in MO

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #17082

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Coming Soon $37,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid