3114 Zeyno Dr

Middleburg, FL 32068

$289,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-381/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-381/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shadowlawn Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 49% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 609 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $289k implies a 2123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.