3114 Zeyno Dr · Middleburg, FL 32068

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 2013 8,712 sqft lot Est $286k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in a quiet, well-kept community. Property features a desirable split floorplan, offering both comfort and privacy. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, making this home truly move-in ready. Enjoy the added benefits of NO CDD fees and a low HOA, helping keep your monthly costs down. Conveniently located just minutes from top-rated Clay County schools, local parks, shopping, dining, and with easy access to major highways for an easy commute. This well-cared-for home offers the perfect combination of location, value, and lifestyle. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2013

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association (The Retreat); Association fee $350 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fire alarm; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-381/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shadowlawn Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 49% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 609 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $289k implies a 2123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,336 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,224
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3255 Ginny Lake Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+2%)	2mo	$310,000	$189	84
3104 Zeyno Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+9%)	8mo	$282,000	$161	72
3012 Sunset Ridge Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+1%)	14mo	$275,000	$170	72
4035 Edgeland Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+2%)	15mo	$300,000	$182	71
3225 Ginny Lake Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,787 (+11%)	7mo	$310,000	$173	71
3167 Pine Haven Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+10%)	11mo	$303,000	$172	68
3251 Ginny Lake Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,772 (+10%)	6mo	$344,000	$194	67
3228 Deer Creek Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,758 (+9%)	11mo	$330,000	$188	66
2828 Ravine Hill Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+11%)	17mo	$279,500	$157	59
2779 Windemere Ct	0.49mi	3/4.0	1,678 (+4%)	6mo	$332,000	$198	57
2832 Ravine Hill Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,821 (+13%)	13mo	$305,000	$167	54
2644 Ravine Hill Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,821 (+13%)	13mo	$324,000	$178	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-48,130
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-41,515
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 609
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,263 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,858/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,304

Max offer price $283,386

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $50	+0% $-32	+5% $-114	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-211	-5% $-121	+0% $-32	+5% $58	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $42	base $-32	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3107 Zeyno Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.5	1791	$2,100	$1.17	26d	1	0.06mi
2738 Ravine Hill Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,179	$1.16	5d	1	0.21mi
3627 County Road 218 Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	2008	$2,995	$1.49	19d	1	0.59mi
2930 Ravines Rd Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1268	$1,599	$1.26	26d	1	0.61mi
1637 Ascend Ln Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1204	$2,129	$1.77	0d	9	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $289,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $289,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $292,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $292,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $292,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $292,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $292,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $292,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $292,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $292,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    price $295,000
17. 2026-03-07
    listed $298,000 Active
18. 2012-11-19
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,858 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$540/yr (+$45/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$1,858
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,173
• − Management: −$2,173
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$5,433
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2169.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $295,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $298,000 realMLS
• 2012-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,858 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.