1216 W Aztec Blvd #51

Aztec, NM 87410

$22,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$115
• Tax + insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $994/mo
• Annual: $11,922/yr
• Cap rate: 60.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 193.54%
• DSCR: 9.61
• 1% rule: 6.59%
• Cash to close: $6,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $22k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $994 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $21k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $152 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $660 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#98 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Aztec Municipal Schools (town): math 18% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #12 of 29 in NM (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lydia Rippey Elementary (math 34% / reading 95%, grade B+, #10 of 68 statewide, top 13%, 351 students, 100% FRL); C.V. Koogler Middle (math 10% / reading 54%, grade F, #11 of 27 statewide, top 38%, 533 students, 100% FRL); Aztec High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #74 of 110 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 48% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.