1216 W Aztec Blvd #51 · Aztec, NM 87410

$22,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 90 Days on market

Built 1969 720 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you've been looking for a ''clean and neat'' place to call your own, look no further. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom gem is waiting for its new owner. Enjoy the privacy of your own walls and the pride of homeownership at an unbeatable price point. The 1.5-bath setup adds extra convenience for busy mornings. This is a home-only sale located within Anasazi Trails in Aztec NM. No land is included, but a lifestyle of comfort is! Don't miss your chance to own your own home. Sale is Mobile Home Only. Land does not convey. - the buyer must be approved by the park management.

Key facts

• Built 1969
• Listed 90 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $994 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#98 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Aztec Municipal Schools (town): math 18% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #12 of 29 in NM (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lydia Rippey Elementary (math 34% / reading 95%, grade B+, #10 of 68 statewide, top 13%, 351 students, 100% FRL); C.V. Koogler Middle (math 10% / reading 54%, grade F, #11 of 27 statewide, top 38%, 533 students, 100% FRL); Aztec High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #74 of 110 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 48% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $152 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $660 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $20,680 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 60.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 193.54%
• DSCR: 9.61
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.70×
• Total profit: $59,734
• Equity at exit: $3,280

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.69×
• Total profit: $133,584
• Equity at exit: $1,902

Cash invested: $6,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87410

• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$115
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$28 /mo · $330/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $994

Break-even live

Break-even rent $192

Max offer price $22,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,009	-5% $1,001	+0% $994	+5% $986	+10% $978
Rent	-10% $879	-5% $936	+0% $994	+5% $1,051	+10% $1,108
Rate	-1.0pp $1,005	-0.5pp $999	base $994	+0.5pp $988	+1.0pp $982

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,500
• Closing costs: $660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $22,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $22,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $22,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $22,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $22,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-03-06
   listed $22,000 Active 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   If you've been looking for a ''clean and neat'' place to call your own, look no further. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom gem is waiting for its new owner. Enjoy the privacy of your own walls and the pride of homeownership at an unbeatable price point. The 1.5-bath setup adds extra convenience for busy mornings. This is a home-only sale located within Anasazi Trails in Aztec NM. No land is included, but a lifestyle of comfort is! Don't miss your chance to own your own home. Sale is Mobile Home Only. Land does not convey. - the buyer must be approved by the park management.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,232
• − Property taxes: −$330
• − Insurance: −$110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$640
• Taxable income: $12,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,953
• After-tax cash flow: $8,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aztec Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500150
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 33.00%
• Median HH income: $50,522
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5328
• State rank: #12 of 29 in NM

Livability — Aztec

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #18096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aztec, NM
• Population (ZIP): 14,372

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Native American 12% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.31%
• Current HPI: 156.6284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $22,000 SJCMLS