461 Aqua Cir

Lino Lakes, MN 55014

$239,900F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,186 sqft · Built 1998 · Condo · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,909/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$359
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-403/mo
• Annual: $-4,838/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.20%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (20.4% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#287 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Centennial Public School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #26 of 301 in MN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $240k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in Lino Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.