461 Aqua Cir · Lino Lakes, MN 55014

$239,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,186 sqft · Condo public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1998 $359/mo HOA · 19% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Maintenance free townhome in great location! Open concept living with gas burning fireplace in living room. Spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space. Awesome location: close to Chomonix Golf Course, the lakes, & several bike and walking trails. This home is a must see!

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Front patio
• Updated cabinetry

Tags

• RICE CREEK TRAIL SYSTEM
• OPEN AND INVITING LAYOUT
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• FRONT PATIO
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by FirstService Resources; HOA fee $359 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car), approximately 21 x 9
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Entry level: Main; Foundation: Block; Shingle/asphalt roof (age 8 years or less)
• Construction: Vinyl construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Patio; No fencing; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances; Breakfast bar / eat-in kitchen / informal dining area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one upper-level bedroom 14 x 12; second upper-level bedroom 13 x 11)
• Bathrooms: Main floor half bath; Upper-level three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Primary bedroom walk-in closet; Patio; In-ground sprinkler; Gas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in Lino Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#287 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Centennial Public School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #26 of 301 in MN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $240k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $168,679 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.20%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-64,368
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-88,365
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55014

• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,329/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$359
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,419

Max offer price $168,679

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-267	-5% $-335	+0% $-403	+5% $-471	+10% $-539
Rent	-10% $-554	-5% $-479	+0% $-403	+5% $-328	+10% $-252
Rate	-1.0pp $-282	-0.5pp $-342	base $-403	+0.5pp $-465	+1.0pp $-529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 Town Center Pkwy Circle Pines, MN	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,907	$1.50	0d	3	1.04mi
6909 Lakeview Dr Circle Pines, MN	3.0	1.0	1253	$2,300	$1.84	21d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $359 · $4,308/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 1890-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $239,900 Active 1890-char remark
3. 2019-01-07
   soldstatus $150,000
4. 2018-12-21
   soldstatus $150,000 Sold 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Maintenance free townhome in great location! Open concept living with gas burning fireplace in living room. Spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space. Awesome location: close to Chomonix Golf Course, the lakes, & several bike and walking trails. This home is a must see!

5. 2018-12-04
   status Pending 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Maintenance free townhome in great location! Open concept living with gas burning fireplace in living room. Spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space. Awesome location: close to Chomonix Golf Course, the lakes, & several bike and walking trails. This home is a must see!

6. 2018-11-23
   historical Contingent - Inspection 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Maintenance free townhome in great location! Open concept living with gas burning fireplace in living room. Spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space. Awesome location: close to Chomonix Golf Course, the lakes, & several bike and walking trails. This home is a must see!

7. 2018-11-16
   status Active 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Maintenance free townhome in great location! Open concept living with gas burning fireplace in living room. Spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space. Awesome location: close to Chomonix Golf Course, the lakes, & several bike and walking trails. This home is a must see!

8. 2018-10-31
   historical Contingent - Sale of Another Property 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Maintenance free townhome in great location! Open concept living with gas burning fireplace in living room. Spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space. Awesome location: close to Chomonix Golf Course, the lakes, & several bike and walking trails. This home is a must see!

9. 2018-10-24
   price $152,500 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Maintenance free townhome in great location! Open concept living with gas burning fireplace in living room. Spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space. Awesome location: close to Chomonix Golf Course, the lakes, & several bike and walking trails. This home is a must see!

10. 2018-10-02
    listed $155,000 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Maintenance free townhome in great location! Open concept living with gas burning fireplace in living room. Spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space. Awesome location: close to Chomonix Golf Course, the lakes, & several bike and walking trails. This home is a must see!

11. 2005-08-12
    soldstatus $155,000
12. 2005-07-28
    soldstatus $155,000

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Lino Lakes Best Kept Secret! Enjoy this prime location of parks, golf course, shopping and freeway access nearby! This beautiful home boasts 2BR 2BTH, gas fireplace, 8x6 walk-in closet, ample storage, brand new washer and dryer, finished garage! Immediate

13. 2005-07-26
    historical

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Lino Lakes Best Kept Secret! Enjoy this prime location of parks, golf course, shopping and freeway access nearby! This beautiful home boasts 2BR 2BTH, gas fireplace, 8x6 walk-in closet, ample storage, brand new washer and dryer, finished garage! Immediate

14. 2005-06-16
    listed $157,900

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Lino Lakes Best Kept Secret! Enjoy this prime location of parks, golf course, shopping and freeway access nearby! This beautiful home boasts 2BR 2BTH, gas fireplace, 8x6 walk-in closet, ample storage, brand new washer and dryer, finished garage! Immediate

15. 2004-11-24
    historical
16. 2004-08-24
    listed $164,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$179/yr (+$15/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,329
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − HOA: −$4,308
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$9,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,163
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centennial Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2708100
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $84,468
• Composite: 54.78/100
• National rank: #1316
• State rank: #26 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lino Lakes

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #6259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lino Lakes, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 28,975
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 29,047
• Household income: $103,658
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 473.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 4% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.50%
• Current HPI: 242.8272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+45.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $239,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-21 Sold (MLS) $150,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-23 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-16 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-31 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-24 Price Changed $152,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-02 Listed $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-28 Sold (MLS) $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-16 Listed $157,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-24 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-24 Listed $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,329 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.