3333 Guinea Cir

Gloucester Point, VA 23072

$100,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,468/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$518
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $117/mo
• Annual: $1,407/yr
• Cap rate: 12.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.31%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#313 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, schools B+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 2.3% in Gloucester Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.