3333 Guinea Cir · Gloucester Point, VA 23072

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1948

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Remarkable investor opportunity! Looking for your next flip this is it! Adorable bungalow just waiting for the next savvy investor to get creative and bring this home back to life! Priced below current tax assessment. This home is in need of total renovation but has good bones and a good location. Get your HGTV juices flowing and make this one the next gem!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1948
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Built with block and vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Actual year built on file
• Exterior features: Resale condition

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Tub & shower in full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 2.3% in Gloucester Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#313 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, schools B+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.31%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-8,496
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,187
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23072

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $593/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,319

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $100,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   status $100,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   remarks 359-char remark
7. 2026-06-07
   listed $100,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$227/yr (+$19/mo · 38.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$593
• − Insurance: −$5,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $70
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17
• After-tax cash flow: $1,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gloucester County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101620
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,815
• Composite: 56.19/100
• National rank: #1177
• State rank: #37 of 131 in VA

Livability — Gloucester Point

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #11227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,862
• Population (ZIP): 13,069

Population outlook (Gloucester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,437 people
• By 2030: 37,286 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 36,224 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 34,171 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 30,472 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 25,832 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gloucester

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.4) · D 30.4% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -38.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.4 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.83%
• Current HPI: 165.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Coming Soon $100,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2021): $593 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.