81 Henry Cox Rd

Monticello, MS 39654

$125,900C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,707 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 190 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,181/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,202/yr
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.41%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $35,252

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $126k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (6.2% below list).
• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($870 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#24 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #85 of 130 in MS (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP.
• Lawrence County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $74k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.