81 Henry Cox Rd · Monticello, MS 39654

$125,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,707 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 190 Days on market

Built 1991 11 ac lot $47/sqft · 46% below area Est $231k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential of this country home located in Monticello, MS. This property offers a peaceful rural setting surrounded by open land, providing plenty of space and privacy. The home features a floor plan with multiple bedrooms and living areas, ideal for renovation or investment opportunities. While the property requires repairs to the roof, gutters, and ceilings, along with painting and updates to the kitchen and bathroom, it presents an excellent chance to customize and add value. With its quiet location and spacious lot, this home has strong appeal for buyers seeking affordable country living or a rewarding project property.

Key facts

• Open land
• Country home
• Spacious lot

Tags

• COUNTRY HOME
• RURAL SETTING
• OPEN LAND
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• QUIET LOCATION
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#24 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #85 of 130 in MS (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($870 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $74k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,792 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.41%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,026
• List price: $125,900
• Delta: -45.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $18,673
• Equity at exit: $53,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $61,176
• Equity at exit: $80,239

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39654

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,439/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $125,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $136	+0% $100	+5% $65	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $54	+0% $100	+5% $147	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $132	base $100	+0.5pp $68	+1.0pp $34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,900 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,900 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,900 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $125,900 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,900 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,900 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,900 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,900 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,900 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,900 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,900 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,900 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,900 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,900 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,900 Active 171 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,900 Active 170 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    price $135,900 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the potential of this country home located in Monticello, MS. This property offers a peaceful rural setting surrounded by open land, providing plenty of space and privacy. The home features a floor plan with multiple bedrooms and living areas, ideal for renovation or investment opportunities. While the property requires repairs to the roof, gutters, and ceilings, along with painting and updates to the kitchen and bathroom, it presents an excellent chance to customize and add value. With its quiet location and spacious lot, this home has strong appeal for buyers seeking affordable country living or a rewarding project property.

18. 2026-04-20
    price $145,900 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the potential of this country home located in Monticello, MS. This property offers a peaceful rural setting surrounded by open land, providing plenty of space and privacy. The home features a floor plan with multiple bedrooms and living areas, ideal for renovation or investment opportunities. While the property requires repairs to the roof, gutters, and ceilings, along with painting and updates to the kitchen and bathroom, it presents an excellent chance to customize and add value. With its quiet location and spacious lot, this home has strong appeal for buyers seeking affordable country living or a rewarding project property.

19. 2026-03-23
    price $155,900 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the potential of this country home located in Monticello, MS. This property offers a peaceful rural setting surrounded by open land, providing plenty of space and privacy. The home features a floor plan with multiple bedrooms and living areas, ideal for renovation or investment opportunities. While the property requires repairs to the roof, gutters, and ceilings, along with painting and updates to the kitchen and bathroom, it presents an excellent chance to customize and add value. With its quiet location and spacious lot, this home has strong appeal for buyers seeking affordable country living or a rewarding project property.

20. 2026-02-16
    status Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the potential of this country home located in Monticello, MS. This property offers a peaceful rural setting surrounded by open land, providing plenty of space and privacy. The home features a floor plan with multiple bedrooms and living areas, ideal for renovation or investment opportunities. While the property requires repairs to the roof, gutters, and ceilings, along with painting and updates to the kitchen and bathroom, it presents an excellent chance to customize and add value. With its quiet location and spacious lot, this home has strong appeal for buyers seeking affordable country living or a rewarding project property.

21. 2026-02-16
    price $165,500 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the potential of this country home located in Monticello, MS. This property offers a peaceful rural setting surrounded by open land, providing plenty of space and privacy. The home features a floor plan with multiple bedrooms and living areas, ideal for renovation or investment opportunities. While the property requires repairs to the roof, gutters, and ceilings, along with painting and updates to the kitchen and bathroom, it presents an excellent chance to customize and add value. With its quiet location and spacious lot, this home has strong appeal for buyers seeking affordable country living or a rewarding project property.

22. 2026-02-07
    historical 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the potential of this country home located in Monticello, MS. This property offers a peaceful rural setting surrounded by open land, providing plenty of space and privacy. The home features a floor plan with multiple bedrooms and living areas, ideal for renovation or investment opportunities. While the property requires repairs to the roof, gutters, and ceilings, along with painting and updates to the kitchen and bathroom, it presents an excellent chance to customize and add value. With its quiet location and spacious lot, this home has strong appeal for buyers seeking affordable country living or a rewarding project property.

23. 2025-12-08
    price $179,550 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the potential of this country home located in Monticello, MS. This property offers a peaceful rural setting surrounded by open land, providing plenty of space and privacy. The home features a floor plan with multiple bedrooms and living areas, ideal for renovation or investment opportunities. While the property requires repairs to the roof, gutters, and ceilings, along with painting and updates to the kitchen and bathroom, it presents an excellent chance to customize and add value. With its quiet location and spacious lot, this home has strong appeal for buyers seeking affordable country living or a rewarding project property.

24. 2025-12-03
    listed $199,500 Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the potential of this country home located in Monticello, MS. This property offers a peaceful rural setting surrounded by open land, providing plenty of space and privacy. The home features a floor plan with multiple bedrooms and living areas, ideal for renovation or investment opportunities. While the property requires repairs to the roof, gutters, and ceilings, along with painting and updates to the kitchen and bathroom, it presents an excellent chance to customize and add value. With its quiet location and spacious lot, this home has strong appeal for buyers seeking affordable country living or a rewarding project property.

25. 2025-12-03
    historical

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the potential of this country home located in Monticello, MS. This property offers a peaceful rural setting surrounded by open land, providing plenty of space and privacy. The home features a floor plan with multiple bedrooms and living areas, ideal for renovation or investment opportunities. While the property requires repairs to the roof, gutters, and ceilings, along with painting and updates to the kitchen and bathroom, it presents an excellent chance to customize and add value. With its quiet location and spacious lot, this home has strong appeal for buyers seeking affordable country living or a rewarding project property.

26. 2025-11-10
    listed $199,500 Active
27. 2016-05-01
    soldstatus $132,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,439 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,439 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$1,439
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,134
• − Management: −$1,134
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable loss: −$881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$212
• After-tax cash flow: $1,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802490
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,725
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8812
• State rank: #85 of 130 in MS

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #6306

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,589

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,069 people
• By 2030: 11,724 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 10,955 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 10,085 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 5,614 · -53.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.6) · D 31.4% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -36.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.6 2020: R+30.6 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Current HPI: 117.8262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+3.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $135,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $145,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $155,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $165,500 MLSU
• 2026-02-07 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $179,550 MLSU
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-12-03 Listed $199,500 MLSU
• 2025-11-10 Listed $199,500 MLSU
• 2016-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,439 · +41.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.