9951 Stephen Richards Memorial Dr Unit 89B

Juneau, AK 99801

$165,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,347/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$590
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $226/mo
• Annual: $2,712/yr
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in AK, #703 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Juneau Borough School District (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #9 of 21 in AK (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sit Eeti Shaanax - Glacier Valley School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #112 of 156 statewide, top 74%, 325 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 114 units permitted in Juneau City and Borough in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Juneau County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.6% in Juneau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.