9951 Stephen Richards Memorial Dr Unit 89B · Juneau, AK 99801

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $227k · 27% under $590/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in Sprucewood MHP, this bright and welcoming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and easy living. Built in 2006, the thoughtfully designed layout feels open and inviting from the moment you step inside, with vaulted ceilings and a light-filled living area that creates an airy, relaxed atmosphere. The kitchen is both functional and inviting, featuring upgraded appliances and a seamless flow into the main living space—ideal for everyday living or gathering with friends. Each bedroom has been recently refreshed with new paint and durable vinyl flooring, offering a clean, updated feel throughout. Step outside and you’ll find

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Shed storage
• Upgraded appliances

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• COVERED PORCH
• SHED STORAGE
• AMPLE ON-SITE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a cul-de-sac on a level lot; Zoned D18 - Multifamily; Located in Sprucewood MHP
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $590

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Wood fencing; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.6% in Juneau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in AK, #703 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Juneau Borough School District (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #9 of 21 in AK (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sit Eeti Shaanax - Glacier Valley School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #112 of 156 statewide, top 74%, 325 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 114 units permitted in Juneau City and Borough in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Juneau County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,512
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9025 Long Run Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,240 (+8%)	16mo	$245,000	$198	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,008
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,441
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99801

• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,251/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$590
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,061

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $590 · $7,080/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $165,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-05-20
   status Active
7. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
8. 2026-04-14
   listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,251 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,607 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$356/yr (+$30/mo · 28.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,251
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − HOA: −$7,080
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$111
• After-tax cash flow: $2,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Juneau Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200210
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,032
• Composite: 35.76/100
• National rank: #4845
• State rank: #9 of 21 in AK

Livability — Juneau

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #703

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Juneau, AK
• County: Juneau Borough · 29,588 people
• City population: 29,588
• Metro: Juneau, AK
• Population (ZIP): 29,588
• Household income: $102,217
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Juneau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,707 people
• By 2030: 38,658 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 42,270 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 46,086 · +25.6%
• By 2075: 58,476 · +59.3%
• By 2100: 69,228 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 17% Native American 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 3% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Juneau

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.89%
• Current HPI: 170.9025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Juneau, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — SEABR
• 2026-04-18 Pending — SEABR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $165,000 SEABR

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,251 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.