4471 Deer Springs Dr

Bellemont, AZ 86015

$545,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,064/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax + insurance: −$436
• HOA: −$72
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$853
• Net cashflow: $-156/mo
• Annual: $-1,867/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $152,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $545k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $518k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $406k (25.4% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($529k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $406k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.