27515 Sage

Fair Oaks Ranch, TX 78015

$374,999D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,068 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,375/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$402
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-550/mo
• Annual: $-6,603/yr
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.29%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-550 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (36.7% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Boerne ISD (town): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #42 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.9% in Fair Oaks Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($162k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.