27515 Sage · Fair Oaks Ranch, TX 78015

$374,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2019 6,272 sqft lot $181/sqft · 6% below area Est $398k · 6% under $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this gem in the desirable Hills of Cielo Ranch in Boerne! This bright and airy home is bathed in natural sunlight and boasts an open floor plan that's perfect for modern living. Downstairs, you'll find a dedicated office space, while upstairs houses all four bedrooms-including one oversized room that's versatile enough to serve as a game room, bedroom, or additional lounge area. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a convenient upstairs laundry room, this home is designed for both comfort and functionality. Located in the sought-after Boerne ISD, this property is just a short drive to Fair Oaks Golf Course and offers quick access to I-10, making commuting a breeze. The neighborhood also features a community park with a sparkling pool, providing the perfect spot to relax and unwind. Experience the best of Boerne living with this incredible find!

Key facts

• 6,272 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-550 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.9% in Fair Oaks Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Boerne ISD (town): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #42 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($162k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,516 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.29%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,797
• List price: $374,999
• Delta: -5.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27154 Smokey Chase	0.37mi	3/2.0	2,052 (-1%)	2mo	$418,000	$204	77
27318 Smokey Chase	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,134 (+3%)	4mo	$395,500	$185	71
27514 Valle Verde	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,082 (+1%)	0mo	$389,999	$187	71
7627 Desperado	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,183 (+6%)	5mo	$449,900	$206	70
27510 Valle Verde	0.44mi	3/2.0	2,086 (+1%)	7mo	$389,000	$186	70
27541 Sage Vw	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,304 (+11%)	6mo	$390,395	$169	66
27003 Hardy Run	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,162 (+4%)	1mo	$485,000	$224	66
7813 Sycamore Hls	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,304 (+11%)	5mo	$369,000	$160	66
27455 Camino Hvn	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,794 (-13%)	1mo	$369,500	$206	64
7743 Mountain Trl	0.48mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,101 (+2%)	5mo	$799,000	$380	62
7415 Valle Msn	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,933 (-6%)	5mo	$399,500	$207	58
27402 Valle Verde	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (-14%)	7mo	$410,999	$232	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-72,957
• Equity at exit: $80,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-88,026
• Equity at exit: $75,880

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78015

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,950/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,072

Max offer price $277,802

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27627 Sienna Crk Boerne, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,995	$1.19	14d	1	0.17mi
27509 Sienna Crk Boerne, TX	4.0	3.0	2601	$2,800	$1.08	23d	1	0.17mi
7903 Anza Run Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,500	$1.26	43d	1	0.26mi
27442 Camino Tower Boerne, TX	4.0	2.5	2686	$2,750	$1.02	4d	1	0.31mi
27431 Valle Blf Boerne, TX	4.0	2.0	1798	$2,300	$1.28	43d	1	0.36mi
7502 Paraiso Pt Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,950	$1.17	23d	1	0.43mi
7472 Paraiso Pt Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,900	$1.26	43d	1	0.44mi
26946 Millstone Cv Boerne, TX	4.0	3.5	2425	$3,200	$1.32	12d	1	0.77mi
27910 Dana Creek Dr Boerne, TX	4.0	2.5	2770	$2,499	$0.90	17d	1	1.05mi
27910 Dana Creek Dr Boerne, TX	4.0	2.5	2770	$2,649	$0.96	43d	1	1.05mi
8614 Carmel Rose Boerne, TX	3.0	3.0	1933	$3,000	$1.55	43d	1	1.22mi
26006 Los Mirasoles Boerne, TX	4.0	3.0	2403	$2,895	$1.20	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,999 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,999 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,999 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,999 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,999 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,999 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,999 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,999 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $374,999 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,999 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,999 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,999 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,999 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,999 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $374,999 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Don't miss this gem in the desirable Hills of Cielo Ranch in Boerne! This bright and airy home is bathed in natural sunlight and boasts an open floor plan that's perfect for modern living. Downstairs, you'll find a dedicated office space, while upstairs houses all four bedrooms-including one oversized room that's versatile enough to serve as a game room, bedroom, or additional lounge area. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a convenient upstairs laundry room, this home is designed for both comfort and functionality. Located in the sought-after Boerne ISD, this property is just a short drive to Fair Oaks Golf Course and offers quick access to I-10, making commuting a breeze. The neighborhood also features a community park with a sparkling pool, providing the perfect spot to relax and unwind. Experience the best of Boerne living with this incredible find!

16. 2026-04-08
    listed $389,900 New 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Don't miss this gem in the desirable Hills of Cielo Ranch in Boerne! This bright and airy home is bathed in natural sunlight and boasts an open floor plan that's perfect for modern living. Downstairs, you'll find a dedicated office space, while upstairs houses all four bedrooms-including one oversized room that's versatile enough to serve as a game room, bedroom, or additional lounge area. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a convenient upstairs laundry room, this home is designed for both comfort and functionality. Located in the sought-after Boerne ISD, this property is just a short drive to Fair Oaks Golf Course and offers quick access to I-10, making commuting a breeze. The neighborhood also features a community park with a sparkling pool, providing the perfect spot to relax and unwind. Experience the best of Boerne living with this incredible find!

17. 2024-02-05
    historical $2,500
18. 2023-12-18
    price $2,500
19. 2023-09-07
    listed $2,695
20. 2021-04-19
    soldstatus
21. 2021-04-15
    soldstatus Sold 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Meticulously maintained 3 Bed/2.5 Bath Two-Story Residence located in Hills of Cielo Ranch subdivision. The bright open floor plan and high ceilings welcome you in with a spacious living area with abundant light flooding in from beautiful double pane windows throughout. Stylish Eat-in Island kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, breakfast bar, walk-in pantry and plenty of cabinet space. Impressive master suite with walk-in multi-closets and serene master bath with double vanity. Enjoy family gatherings in the vast backyard with privacy fence and sprinkler system for easy yard maintenance. This home creates the perfect family atmosphere! Request a showing now. PLEASE SEE ATTACHED VIDEO HOME TOUR: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1w69latv5RTB0IEhPSnRocIQre97twJFE/view?ts=6053a92e

22. 2021-03-31
    status Pending 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Meticulously maintained 3 Bed/2.5 Bath Two-Story Residence located in Hills of Cielo Ranch subdivision. The bright open floor plan and high ceilings welcome you in with a spacious living area with abundant light flooding in from beautiful double pane windows throughout. Stylish Eat-in Island kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, breakfast bar, walk-in pantry and plenty of cabinet space. Impressive master suite with walk-in multi-closets and serene master bath with double vanity. Enjoy family gatherings in the vast backyard with privacy fence and sprinkler system for easy yard maintenance. This home creates the perfect family atmosphere! Request a showing now. PLEASE SEE ATTACHED VIDEO HOME TOUR: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1w69latv5RTB0IEhPSnRocIQre97twJFE/view?ts=6053a92e

23. 2021-03-22
    historical Active Option 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Meticulously maintained 3 Bed/2.5 Bath Two-Story Residence located in Hills of Cielo Ranch subdivision. The bright open floor plan and high ceilings welcome you in with a spacious living area with abundant light flooding in from beautiful double pane windows throughout. Stylish Eat-in Island kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, breakfast bar, walk-in pantry and plenty of cabinet space. Impressive master suite with walk-in multi-closets and serene master bath with double vanity. Enjoy family gatherings in the vast backyard with privacy fence and sprinkler system for easy yard maintenance. This home creates the perfect family atmosphere! Request a showing now. PLEASE SEE ATTACHED VIDEO HOME TOUR: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1w69latv5RTB0IEhPSnRocIQre97twJFE/view?ts=6053a92e

24. 2021-03-19
    price $295,990 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Meticulously maintained 3 Bed/2.5 Bath Two-Story Residence located in Hills of Cielo Ranch subdivision. The bright open floor plan and high ceilings welcome you in with a spacious living area with abundant light flooding in from beautiful double pane windows throughout. Stylish Eat-in Island kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, breakfast bar, walk-in pantry and plenty of cabinet space. Impressive master suite with walk-in multi-closets and serene master bath with double vanity. Enjoy family gatherings in the vast backyard with privacy fence and sprinkler system for easy yard maintenance. This home creates the perfect family atmosphere! Request a showing now. PLEASE SEE ATTACHED VIDEO HOME TOUR: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1w69latv5RTB0IEhPSnRocIQre97twJFE/view?ts=6053a92e

25. 2021-03-18
    listed $295,000 New 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Meticulously maintained 3 Bed/2.5 Bath Two-Story Residence located in Hills of Cielo Ranch subdivision. The bright open floor plan and high ceilings welcome you in with a spacious living area with abundant light flooding in from beautiful double pane windows throughout. Stylish Eat-in Island kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, breakfast bar, walk-in pantry and plenty of cabinet space. Impressive master suite with walk-in multi-closets and serene master bath with double vanity. Enjoy family gatherings in the vast backyard with privacy fence and sprinkler system for easy yard maintenance. This home creates the perfect family atmosphere! Request a showing now. PLEASE SEE ATTACHED VIDEO HOME TOUR: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1w69latv5RTB0IEhPSnRocIQre97twJFE/view?ts=6053a92e

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,950 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,862 · $572/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,913/yr (+$326/mo · 132.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$2,950
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$13,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,239
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boerne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810710
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $85,478
• Composite: 54.47/100
• National rank: #1350
• State rank: #42 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fair Oaks Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 24,867
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,867
• Household income: $162,487
• Rent vs Own: 6.2% rent · 93.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 184.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.57%
• Current HPI: 234.5375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+27.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $374,999 LERA
• 2026-04-08 Listed $389,900 LERA
• 2024-02-05 Rental Removed $2,500 RENT.
• 2023-12-18 Price Changed $2,500 RENT.
• 2023-09-07 Listed for Rent $2,695 RENT.
• 2021-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-15 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2021-03-31 Pending — LERA
• 2021-03-22 Contingent — LERA
• 2021-03-19 Price Changed $295,990 LERA
• 2021-03-18 Listed $295,000 LERA

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,950 · -55.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.