1582 Cottonwood Cir

North Auburn, CA 95603

$128,500B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2011 · Manufactured · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,053/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$674
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $734/mo
• Annual: $8,804/yr
• Cap rate: 13.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.47%
• DSCR: 2.09
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $35,980

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $734 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $888 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#519 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ev Cain Middle (math 23% / reading 43%, grade F, #199 of 498 statewide, top 40%, 524 students, 45% FRL); Placer High (math 30% / reading 62%, grade D-, #409 of 1,170 statewide, top 36%, 1,310 students, 30% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Placer Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.6% in North Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.