1582 Cottonwood Cir · North Auburn, CA 95603

$128,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 2011 Good condition Est $115k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home at 1852 Cottonwood Circle. This darling newer manufactured home is the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in a peaceful senior community close to so many amenities. Light, bright and lovingly maintained, it offers an open floor plan, modern finishes, and a cozy atmosphere that feels like home the moment you step inside. The open kitchen offers generous counter space and cabinets making cooking a breeze. The primary bedroom is generously sized with a spacious closet that flows into the bathroom with a walk in shower. Inside laundry area with a second bedroom and bathroom add extra space. Newer chair lift and back deck for handicap accessibility or just loading

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2011
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Placer County; directions: Hwy 49 to Luther Road, enter Woodside Village Mobile Home Park, right on 2nd Cottonwood Circle
• Financial info: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220 volts in kitchen; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single-wide; Built in 2011; Located in a senior community; Street address: 1582 Cottonwood Cir, Auburn, CA 95603
• Construction: Wood skirting; Laurel Wood make
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing gas oven; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Laminate counters in the kitchen; Living room with flexible/other features; Dining area located in the kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $734 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.6% in North Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#519 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $888 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,645 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.47%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,200
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1601 Alder Cir	0.08mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	17mo	$117,500	$122	82
108 Marigold	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+4%)	10mo	$120,000	$120	64
99 Marigold Ave #99	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,052 (+10%)	0mo	$125,000	$119	62
12344 Pepperwood Cir	0.17mi	2/2.0	840 (-12%)	16mo	$43,000	$51	58
1605 Grass Valley Hwy	0.34mi	2/2.0	880 (-8%)	15mo	$97,900	$111	58
23 Larkspur Ave	0.57mi	2/1.5	880 (-8%)	3mo	$122,680	$139	55
56 Larkspur Ave	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,022 (+6%)	21mo	$149,000	$146	45
1605 Grass Valley Hwy #85	0.36mi	2/1.0	856 (-11%)	23mo	$49,500	$58	42
85 Primrose Ave	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	14mo	$155,000	$141	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $24,581
• Equity at exit: $19,160

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $76,216
• Equity at exit: $11,110

Cash invested: $35,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95603

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$674
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,928/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,124

Max offer price $128,500

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,125
• Closing costs: $3,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11754 Jones St Unit 11754 Auburn, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,595	$2.28	3d	1	0.91mi
11752 Jones St Unit 11752 Auburn, CA	2.0	1.0	815	$1,795	$2.20	11d	1	0.91mi
630 Shockley Rd Auburn, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,495	$2.27	2d	1	0.94mi
750 Auburn Ravine Rd Auburn, CA	1.0	1.0	540	$1,901	$3.52	2d	4	1.26mi
731 Mikkelsen Dr Auburn, CA	2.0	2.0	1006	$2,150	$2.14	2d	1	1.40mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,928
• − Insurance: −$642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$3,738
• Taxable income: $7,186
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,725
• After-tax cash flow: $7,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home is in good condition with modern finishes and ample space. It's move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Rental trim bushes — improves landscaping and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental trim bushes — improves landscaping and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placer Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,119
• Composite: 49.04/100
• National rank: #2060
• State rank: #98 of 517 in CA

Livability — North Auburn

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #17512

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Auburn, CA
• County: Placer County · 390,510 people
• City population: 28,195
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,432
• Household income: $85,357
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1017.0

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -500.89%
• Current HPI: 251.4573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.34%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B