2648 E Portland St

Springfield, MO 65804

$219,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,462 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-161/mo
• Annual: $-1,934/yr
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (30.5% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $152k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pittman Elem. (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 219 students, 66% FRL); Hickory Hills Middle (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 414 students, 46% FRL); Glendale High (math 21% / reading 55%, grade F, #290 of 521 statewide, top 56%, 1,307 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 260 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.