4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,896 sqft ·
Built 1921
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,070/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,302
Tax + insurance
−$794
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$855
Net cashflow
$119/mo
Annual
$1,431/yr
Cap rate
6.62%
Cash-on-cash
1.16%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$122,920
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $407k (7.3% below list).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $407k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#384 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
Plainfield Public School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #588 of 612 in NJ (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Clinton Elementary School (413 students, 75% FRL); Hubbard Middle School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #365 of 431 statewide, top 86%, 775 students, 91% FRL); Plainfield High School (1,925 students, 78% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,749 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (1,421 in 5+ unit buildings).
Union County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $118k; list at $439k implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Plainfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EBTDF76EQN5YPJ
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29