317 Mountain View Rd

Taconic Shores, NY 12516

$449,900D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,439/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$491
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-1,713/mo
• Annual: $-20,557/yr
• Cap rate: 1.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.79%
• DSCR: 0.30
• 1% rule: 0.32%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (67.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (68.0% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (68.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $450k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 68% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.