317 Mountain View Rd · Taconic Shores, NY 12516

$449,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1988 0.70 ac lot $223/sqft · 16% below area Est $538k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 317 Mountain View Road in Copake. This is the kind of home people are looking for when they say they want space, comfort, and character. Set in the heart of Copake, just moments from Copake Park, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of warm, functional living space in one of Columbia County's most charming hamlets. It is quiet, it is convenient, and it feels like home the second you pull in. Inside, cherry flooring run through the bedrooms giving the classic warmth buyers want but do not always find. The living room is filled with natural light and framed by beautiful views that change with the seasons and sensational view. The family/dining room, complete wi

Key facts

• Three season room
• Natural light
• Privacy and peace

Tags

• CHERRY FLOORING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• THREE SEASON ROOM
• WALKOUT FULL BASEMENT
• CEDAR PINE ADIRONDACK ROOM
• PRIVACY AND PEACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Electricity connected with 200+ amp service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Shed(s); 0.7-acre lot; Zoned RES 1

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Fireplace in family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (67.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (68.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (68.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $450k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,896 (68.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 68% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.32% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.79%
• DSCR: 0.30
• GRM: 26.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $537,751
• List price: $449,900
• Delta: -16.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1600 County Route 7a	0.74mi	3/1.5	2,220 (+10%)	4mo	$650,000	$293	45
1264 Lakeview Rd	0.70mi	3/—	1,792 (-11%)	19mo	$475,000	$265	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $135,783
• Equity at exit: $405,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $485,385
• Equity at exit: $874,057

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12516

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 26.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,970/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-1,713

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,607

Max offer price $147,277

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $449,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $449,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $474,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $474,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $474,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $474,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $474,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $474,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $474,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $474,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $474,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $474,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $474,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $474,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $474,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $474,900 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $499,900 Active 1617-char remark
19. 1996-12-09
    soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,970 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,287 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,316/yr (+$193/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,970
• − Insurance: −$2,916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$29,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,121
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Taconic Shores

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taconic Shores, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,748

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.67%
• Current HPI: 430.1986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+221.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $449,900 HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $474,900 HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $499,900 HVCRMLS
• 1996-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,970 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.