9 Shirley Dr

Georgetown-Quitman County, GA 39854

$105,000D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $109/mo
• Annual: $1,307/yr
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.45%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (1.5% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Quitman County (town): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #184 of 187 in GA (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 94% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Quitman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Quitman County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.9% in Georgetown-Quitman County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.