9 Shirley Dr · Georgetown-Quitman County, GA 39854

$105,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1992 0.34 ac lot $84/sqft · 36% above area Est $77k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Starter home or downsizing. Brick home with living rm, Dining/kitchen, den (enclosed garage), full bath and a 3/4 bath. large backyard and located on a corner lot.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Brick home
• Corner lot

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• LARGE BACKYARD
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.9% in Georgetown-Quitman County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Quitman County (town): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #184 of 187 in GA (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 94% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Quitman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Quitman County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.45%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,410
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 35.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $25,671
• Equity at exit: $53,681

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $74,514
• Equity at exit: $88,157

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39854

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,368/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $897

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-02-20
    listed $115,000 Active 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    Great Starter home or downsizing. Brick home with living rm, Dining/kitchen, den (enclosed garage), full bath and a 3/4 bath. large backyard and located on a corner lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,368
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$993
• − Management: −$993
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$96
• After-tax cash flow: $1,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quitman County
• NCES district ID: 1304290
• Math proficiency: 10% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,082
• Composite: 13.53/100
• National rank: #14489
• State rank: #184 of 187 in GA

Livability — Georgetown-Quitman County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Georgetown-Quitman County, GA
• City population: 2,407
• Population (ZIP): 2,295

Population outlook (Quitman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,977 people
• By 2030: 1,789 · -9.5%
• By 2040: 1,445 · -26.9%
• By 2050: 1,148 · -41.9%
• By 2075: 590 · -70.2%
• By 2100: 328 · -83.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 48% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada, Jamaica

Political lean MEDSL · Quitman

• 2024 margin: R (+15.4) · D 42.1% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: 7.9pp · 2024: -15.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.4 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+10.9 2012: D+9.1 2008: D+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.07%
• Current HPI: 172.7909
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $115,000 EBOR

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,368 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.