322 Willow Rd

Guilford Center, CT 06437

$915,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,360 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,798
• Tax + insurance: −$1,367
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $-240/mo
• Annual: $-2,881/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $256,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $915k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $873k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $750k (18.0% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $750k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in CT, #1,186 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Guilford School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #19 of 153 in CT (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Guilford Lakes School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #44 of 553 statewide, top 10%, 350 students, 9% FRL); Guilford High School (math 60% / reading 84%, grade B+, #14 of 194 statewide, top 8%, 1,048 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $565k; list at $915k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Guilford Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.