322 Willow Rd · Guilford Center, CT 06437

$915,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1998 0.92 ac lot Est $853k · 7% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous 10 room colonial in sought after subdivision. Completely remodeled with additional 972 sq. Ft on walkout lower level. A pleasure to show! Beautiful lot abutting open space

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Oil fuel tank located in basement
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Underground utilities; Lightly wooded, level lot; Professionally landscaped; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Hydro air heating; Oil-fired heat; Programmable thermostat; Domestic hot water heated by oil
• Interior features: Auto garage door opener; Cable available; Open floor plan; Possible in-law apartment; One fireplace; Has attic (floored, walk-up); Full, partially finished basement with interior access and walk-out; contains liveable space
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room on upper level; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $915k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $873k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $750k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $750k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Guilford Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in CT, #1,186 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Guilford School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #19 of 153 in CT (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Guilford Lakes School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #44 of 553 statewide, top 10%, 350 students, 9% FRL); Guilford High School (math 60% / reading 84%, grade B+, #14 of 194 statewide, top 8%, 1,048 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $565k; list at $915k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $750,000 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $853,440
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Pepperbush Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	3,318 (-1%)	21mo	$885,000	$267	70
381 Willow Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5	3,597 (+7%)	20mo	$850,000	$236	65
95 Pepperbush Ln	0.23mi	4/3.5	3,307 (-2%)	22mo	$1,000,000	$302	64
150 Whitethorn Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,997 (-11%)	12mo	$760,000	$254	57
35 Whitethorn Dr	0.37mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,010 (-10%)	11mo	$715,000	$238	47
160 Podunk Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5	3,744 (+11%)	24mo	$950,000	$254	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-163,546
• Equity at exit: $136,429

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-162,040
• Equity at exit: $79,112

Cash invested: $256,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06437

• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,798
• Tax from tax record: −$986 /mo · $11,826/yr
• Insurance: −$381
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,804

Max offer price $872,584

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $19	+0% $-240	+5% $-499	+10% $-758
Rent	-10% $-833	-5% $-536	+0% $-240	+5% $56	+10% $352
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $-7	base $-240	+0.5pp $-477	+1.0pp $-718

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $228,750
• Closing costs: $27,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Race Hill Rd Madison, CT	4.0	3.5	3748	$7,500	$2.00	21d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-14
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
3. 2026-04-11
   listed $915,000 Active
4. 2026-04-01
   historical $915,000
5. 2011-10-14
   soldstatus $565,000
6. 2011-10-13
   soldstatus $565,000 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   Gorgeous 10 room colonial in sought after subdivision. Completely remodeled with additional 972 sq. Ft on walkout lower level. A pleasure to show! Beautiful lot abutting open space

7. 2011-02-01
   listed $609,000 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   Gorgeous 10 room colonial in sought after subdivision. Completely remodeled with additional 972 sq. Ft on walkout lower level. A pleasure to show! Beautiful lot abutting open space

8. 2005-03-17
   soldstatus $585,000
9. 2005-03-16
   soldstatus $585,000 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Bonus room and finished walkout lower levelwith extra 700 sq.Ft. Finished , 6 yr. Old , walkup attic, new granite counter top and faucet in kitchen,new counterand faucets in the master bath with a whirlpool tub,great neighborhood

10. 2004-07-22
    listed $605,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Bonus room and finished walkout lower levelwith extra 700 sq.Ft. Finished , 6 yr. Old , walkup attic, new granite counter top and faucet in kitchen,new counterand faucets in the master bath with a whirlpool tub,great neighborhood

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,826 · $986/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,704 · $1,309/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,878/yr (+$323/mo · 32.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,254
• − Property taxes: −$11,826
• − Insurance: −$4,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$26,618
• Taxable loss: −$18,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,482
• After-tax cash flow: $1,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford School District
• NCES district ID: 0901800
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $97,539
• Composite: 63.46/100
• National rank: #614
• State rank: #19 of 153 in CT

Livability — Guilford Center

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1186

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute C Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,037

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.02%
• Current HPI: 179.6376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+51.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $915,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-01 Coming Soon $915,000 Smart MLS
• 2011-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $565,000 Public Records
• 2011-10-13 Sold (MLS) $565,000 Smart MLS
• 2011-02-01 Listed $609,000 Smart MLS
• 2005-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $585,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-16 Sold (MLS) $585,000 Smart MLS
• 2004-07-22 Listed $605,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $11,826 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.