413 E Saguaro Dr

Florence, AZ 85132

$79,900C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 409 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$68
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $287/mo
• Annual: $3,441/yr
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.38%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 736 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $61k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.1% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.