413 E Saguaro Dr · Florence, AZ 85132

$79,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 409 sqft · Manufactured · 200 Days on market

Built 1986 1,262 sqft lot $195/sqft · 13% above area Est $71k · 13% over $68/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +1.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A gorgeous and fully furnished 1986 Fleetwood Dream Park home located in the highly desirable Caliente Casa De Sol 55+ community where you own the land with no lot rent. This beautifully updated home features extensive upgrades completed within the past year including a new AC unit, all new vinyl windows, a new sliding glass door with built-in blinds, fresh interior paint in bright kitchen and modern light gray tones, a new country sink and faucet, and a completely remodeled bathroom with a tall walk-in shower. The home also offers new matching flooring throughout, a new full-size exit door off the bedroom, upgraded plumbing, and a newer electric post. Caliente Casa De Sol offers four pools, clubhouse dining and events, pickleball courts, golf, and more.

Key facts

• Tall walk-in shower
• New ac unit
• New vinyl windows

Tags

• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW VINYL WINDOWS
• NEW SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• NEW COUNTRY SINK
• TALL WALK-IN SHOWER
• NEW MATCHING FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.2% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $61k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.38%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,631
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 13.12%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 E Ocotillo Dr	0.03mi	1/1.0	409 (0%)	1mo	$43,000	$105	98
411 E Barrel Cactus Ln	0.02mi	1/1.0	421 (+3%)	5mo	$115,000	$273	90
513 E Barrel Cactus Ln	0.08mi	1/1.0	421 (+3%)	6mo	$59,900	$142	87
328 E Palo Verde Ln	0.07mi	1/1.0	420 (+3%)	7mo	$137,500	$327	86
210 E Hedge Dr	0.22mi	1/1.0	409 (0%)	6mo	$79,000	$193	85
204 E Gila Dr	0.26mi	1/1.0	397 (-3%)	1mo	$125,000	$315	82
208 E Hedge Dr	0.23mi	1/1.0	392 (-4%)	1mo	$38,000	$97	81
3551 N Vista Del Sol --	0.17mi	1/1.0	385 (-6%)	1mo	$95,000	$247	81
102 E Barrel Cactus Ln	0.33mi	1/1.0	386 (-6%)	1mo	$113,000	$293	75
107 E Maricopa Blvd	0.34mi	1/1.0	386 (-6%)	4mo	$81,000	$210	72
203 E Cholla Ln	0.23mi	1/1.0	450 (+10%)	6mo	$41,000	$91	67
107 E Cholla Ln	0.31mi	1/1.0	363 (-11%)	4mo	$55,000	$152	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $3,413
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $18,945
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $785

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $314	+0% $287	+5% $259	+10% $232
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $241	+0% $287	+5% $332	+10% $377
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $307	base $287	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $79,900 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   A gorgeous and fully furnished 1986 Fleetwood Dream Park home located in the highly desirable Caliente Casa De Sol 55+ community where you own the land with no lot rent. This beautifully updated home features extensive upgrades completed within the past year including a new AC unit, all new vinyl windows, a new sliding glass door with built-in blinds, fresh interior paint in bright kitchen and modern light gray tones, a new country sink and faucet, and a completely remodeled bathroom with a tall walk-in shower. The home also offers new matching flooring throughout, a new full-size exit door off the bedroom, upgraded plumbing, and a newer electric post. Caliente Casa De Sol offers four pools, clubhouse dining and events, pickleball courts, golf, and more.

2. 2026-02-05
   price $84,900 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   A gorgeous and fully furnished 1986 Fleetwood Dream Park home located in the highly desirable Caliente Casa De Sol 55+ community where you own the land with no lot rent. This beautifully updated home features extensive upgrades completed within the past year including a new AC unit, all new vinyl windows, a new sliding glass door with built-in blinds, fresh interior paint in bright kitchen and modern light gray tones, a new country sink and faucet, and a completely remodeled bathroom with a tall walk-in shower. The home also offers new matching flooring throughout, a new full-size exit door off the bedroom, upgraded plumbing, and a newer electric post. Caliente Casa De Sol offers four pools, clubhouse dining and events, pickleball courts, golf, and more.

3. 2025-11-10
   listed $86,100 Active 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   A gorgeous and fully furnished 1986 Fleetwood Dream Park home located in the highly desirable Caliente Casa De Sol 55+ community where you own the land with no lot rent. This beautifully updated home features extensive upgrades completed within the past year including a new AC unit, all new vinyl windows, a new sliding glass door with built-in blinds, fresh interior paint in bright kitchen and modern light gray tones, a new country sink and faucet, and a completely remodeled bathroom with a tall walk-in shower. The home also offers new matching flooring throughout, a new full-size exit door off the bedroom, upgraded plumbing, and a newer electric post. Caliente Casa De Sol offers four pools, clubhouse dining and events, pickleball courts, golf, and more.

4. 2025-05-16
   historical
5. 2025-05-07
   listed $86,100 Active
6. 2024-06-07
   soldstatus $61,000 Closed
7. 2024-06-07
   soldstatus $61,000
8. 2024-05-20
   status Pending
9. 2024-05-10
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
10. 2024-04-19
    status Active
11. 2024-04-14
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
12. 2024-03-03
    listed $63,900 Active
13. 2023-03-14
    soldstatus $59,900 Closed
14. 2023-03-14
    soldstatus $59,900
15. 2023-02-04
    status Pending
16. 2023-01-28
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
17. 2023-01-27
    listed $59,900 Active
18. 1995-03-01
    soldstatus $22,500
19. 1989-03-31
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥112°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$566
• After-tax cash flow: $2,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+219.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $79,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $84,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $86,100 ARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $86,100 ARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-07 Sold (MLS) $61,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-04-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-04-14 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-03-03 Listed $63,900 ARMLS
• 2023-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2023-03-14 Sold (MLS) $59,900 ARMLS
• 2023-02-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-01-28 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-01-27 Listed $59,900 ARMLS
• 1995-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records
• 1989-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $74 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.