5148 Sierra Cir

Dayton, OH 45414

$25,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $814/mo
• Annual: $9,773/yr
• Cap rate: 45.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 139.61%
• DSCR: 7.21
• 1% rule: 5.00%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Northridge Local (suburban): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #640 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 51 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 45.4% vs local median 7.4% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The satellite image and listing remarks indicate the roof needs replacement.
• Major: interior walls — The peeling paint and wear on the interior walls indicate significant damage.
• Major: flooring — The linoleum flooring in the kitchen and living room is visibly worn and in need of replacement.